As all political parties in the country are done with the selection of their respective presidential candidates ahead of the February 16, 2018 Presidential election in the country, and the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari as the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC and former Vice-President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate of the opposition People's Democratic Party, PDP. Goldsmeet Story will be looking at how the presidential election will be decided, mostly, between the two candidates across the six (6) geopolitical zones in the country.
Goldsmeet Story will be looking at the influence of the candidates, their relatives and the political party across the geopolitical zones in the country. Nigeria is divided into two horizons; the South and the North. Each horizon is sub divided into three which make the six geopolitical zones in the country. The six geopolitical zones in the country are North-East, North-West, North-Central in the North horizon and South-East, South-West and South-South in the Southern horizon.
This time we are having the two major political parties in the country filling their presidential aspirants from the almost the same ethnicity, same religion, same horizon and only from a neighboring state.
Before going deep into the analysis, it is important to notice that the decision of who is going to preside over this country in the next presidential election will maximally be decided by 84,271,832 eligible voters. In 2015, the faith was decided by 69,720,350 eligible voters. There is an increment by 14,551,482 of newly registered voters. Of the new registrants, 7,863,917 are males while females ate 6,688,214 eligible voters. 769,917 eligible voters had requested their voter card be transferred from one location to another as 1,178,793 serious electorates have requested the replacement of their voter's card.
North Central
North Central is makeup of six states and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT. North Central states are Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau and the FCT. North Central is also known as Middle Belt.
Middle Belt is going to be a hot ground for the ruling APC, considering the audacity of the President Muhammadu Buhari's administration on the lives and properties entities in this part of the country, PDP will win massively from Benue, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa and Plateau. APC may gather enough votes from this region if and only if the lives and properties destroyed by the suspected herdsmen mean nothing to them.
However, election in this area is likely going to be marred with stage-managed crises and it is possible for rerun elections to take place in many states of this region. The suspected states where stage-managed crises may force the poll to rerun includes Benue, Kogi, Kwara and Plateau.
Under a free and fair contest, incumbent government don't, usually, win an election in the FCT. This is, mostly, because FCT is mostly populated by the bigwigs of the ruling party who, eventually, must disperse themselves to their respective various states to canvass for the political party of the government. Hence, the FCT is left to the unrecognized common citizens who are usually oppressed by some of the bigwigs, then, justification is done.
North East
North East is made up of six (6) states: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe state. This is the zone where the candidate of the opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP) comes from. Precisely, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, PDP Presidential candidate hails from Adamawa state. His influence is likely going to work for him in this region.
Also, he is going to enjoy paternity, indigeneity, religion and nepotism are the factor that may probably favor Alhaji Atiku (of PDP) to win in this zone. However, APC may win in Borno and Yobe but the margin will definitely drop from what the party enjoyed in 2015 general election.
Except if history would want itself be written, President Buhari has never lose election in Yobe State while the victory against Boko Haram will help him win Borno.
PDP will win massively in Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe states. Election in Bauchi stands to be disrupted by violence which may relate to power-tussle and adaptation for survival.
North West
North West comprises of Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara, Kano, Kebbi, Jigawa, and Sokoto States. This region has the greatest voting capacity and high turnout in the country. It is going to be taken serious by both party. However, President Muhammadu Buhari will win this region though the margin will reduce from what was recorded in 2015.
President Muhammadu to be, precise, hails from this region, Katsina State. He is loved and will definitely enjoy paternity, indigeneity, religion and nepotism from this area.
President Muhammadu Buhari will win from Katsina, his homestate, Zamfara, Jigawa and Kebbi states with wide margin. He will also win from, Kaduna, Kano and Sokoto but the margin will drop massively from what he enjoyed in 2015.
President Muhammadu Buhari will win form the North West geopolitical zone. In short, North West is a no go are for PDP.
South South
South South (also known as Niger Delta) is make up six (6) states which include Cross Rivers, Delta, Rivers, Bayelsa, Akwa-Ibom and Edo. PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will definitely win from this region with wide margin. However, President Muhammadu Buhari will win in Edo state. To be candid, South South could be considered a no go area for APC. However, the margin with which this zone would be won by PDP will drop from what was recorded in 2015.
Also, stage-managed crises and Federal Might may mar election in this area.
South East
South East is make up of five states: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo state. This region will be won by PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar with wide margin. South East Zone could be considered a no go area for APC.
South West
South West comprises of six (6) states: Ondo, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Ogun and Lagos. South West is a a battle ground for both parties because majority of electorates from this zone are literates who cast their vote base on the performance of the candidates. However, APC stands to win South-West but not with reasonable margin.
Even, Lagos is a no go area, other states will be keenly contested with tiny margin for any victor.
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